Data on COVID deaths in India: Lessons for building a robust healthcare system

The Sample Registration System (SRS)'s death rate data for 2020 exposes the weakness of recording deaths in India when a massive pandemic strikes. The SRS estimates are the closest to reality, but they too could be underestimates because of their conservative approach.

—–

Why is the SRS 2020 data important?

THE routine annual Sample Registration System (SRS)-Statistical Report for 2020, like each year, provides the demographic dynamics of India.  It passed off without much fanfare after being published. But the 2020 SRS Report is critical from the perspective of deaths because 2020 was the first year of COVID; we saw death all around, and it was expected that the number of deaths for the year would be substantially higher as compared to the previous year.

The officially reported COVID death figure for 2020 is 1,52,539 for the period ending December 31, 2020. How authentic is this data? The SRS crude death rate data for 2020 was released a few days ago. What do these figures tell us about deaths in 2020?

Also read: Several Studies Using Diverse Methods Point to Undercounting of COVID-19 Deaths, Govt in Denial

How does the report's crude death rate data for 2020 indicate underreporting of COVID deaths?

When we look at the trend in death rates (Table 1) over the last seven years, we see a declining trend from 6.7 deaths per 1,000 mid-year population (population estimates from the Union Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation) in 2014 to 6.0 deaths per 1,000 in 2019. Each year, the actual number of deaths decline. For instance, in 2017 the estimated deaths (6.3) amounted to 84,33,810 deaths; in 2018, it (6.2) totalled 83,86,120; in 2019, it (6.0) added up to 81,98,400. So, the decline from 2018 to 2019 was 1,87,720 less deaths.